Bitcoin difficulty adjustment 13 November: −3.6% expected

Bitcoin adjusts its difficulty at block 975,744, which mempool.space estimates will happen around 08:29 UTC on 13 November 2026. At the time of writing on 3 November (14:10 UTC), that estimate stands at −3.65%: from 148.36 T to about 142.95 T (T stands for 10¹²). For anyone mining at home, it means the same miner earns 3.8% more bitcoin per day. It would be the biggest drop since 11 July 2026 (−5.00%), after two increases of more than 5% in two weeks.

Bitcoin difficulty on 13 November in short

• What is coming: at block 975,744 the network adjusts the difficulty. At the time of writing (3 November 2026, 14:10 UTC) the chain was at block 974,392, so 1,352 blocks to go.
• How much: the mempool.space estimate is −3.65%, from 148.36 T to about 142.95 T. This is an interim figure, not a result: the estimate shifts with every new block.
• Why: in the current period blocks came every 10 minutes and 23 seconds on average instead of every 10 minutes. So less computing was done than the difficulty expected.
• What it means per miner: at an unchanged price, a miner earns 3.8% more bitcoin per day after the adjustment (1 ÷ 0.9635 = 1.038).
• What does not change: the block reward stays at 3.125 bitcoin per block, and difficulty says nothing about the price.
• The catch: even after the drop, the electricity price decides the outcome. Above roughly €0.110 per kWh, a Bitaxe Gamma loses money on electricity alone, before the purchase price.

What exactly is going on?

Difficulty determines how much work a miner has to do, on average, to find a valid block. The network adjusts it every 2,016 blocks, aiming for one block every ten minutes, so 14 days per period. If blocks come faster, the difficulty goes up; if they come slower, it goes down.

The current period began on 29 October 2026 at 19:14 UTC (block 973,728). At the time of writing, 664 of its 2,016 blocks have been found in 4 days and 19 hours. At a pace of exactly ten minutes, about 689 blocks would have arrived in that time, so there are about 25 fewer. That fits the falling estimate. How big the drop finally is depends on the pace of the 1,352 blocks still to come.

The data on hashrate itself is rough. The daily values from mempool.space over the past week range between 0.91 and 1.13 ZH/s (zettahash, 10²¹ hashes per second); the latest value is an incomplete day. A single daily value therefore says little; the pace of the blocks is the measure the network itself uses.

Our previous article on this adjustment, from 28 October, assumed +6.50%. It came in at +5.54%: the estimate moved by almost a percentage point in the last 218 blocks. So work with a range this time too, not a single number. If the estimate does come true, 142.95 T is still 7.7% higher than in the period that began on 3 October (132.72 T).

What does a home miner earn after 13 November?

The yield follows a fixed formula: bitcoin per day = hashrate (in H/s) × 86,400 × block reward ÷ (difficulty × 2³²). With a block reward of 3.125 bitcoin, 1 TH/s works out at 42.37 satoshi per day at the current difficulty of 148.36 T, and at about 43.98 satoshi at 142.95 T. Transaction fees barely count: in the 144 blocks from 974,249 to 974,392 inclusive, 0.69% of what miners received came from transaction fees (3.14 of 453.14 bitcoin).

Below are the same three devices as in our article on Bitaxe price: what a home miner costs at three shops, with the hashrate and power as the shops state them. It is a worked example, not a promise: it assumes a price of 69,126 euros per bitcoin (mempool.space, 3 November 2026, 14:10 UTC), an unchanged price and 30 days per month.

What you are left with depends on your electricity price. The threshold above which you make a loss is the daily yield divided by the kWh the device uses per day:

An example: after the adjustment, the Gamma yields €1.19 per 30 days and uses 10.8 kWh. At €0.25 per kWh that electricity costs €2.70, so you are €1.51 down. Only below €0.110 per kWh does it pay, and that is still without counting the purchase price. The €0.25 is an assumption, not a measured price; enter your own rate. More on what a home miner earns can be found in Mining bitcoin at home in 2026: what a 12 TH/s miner really earns. For the devices on sale, see home miners and Bitaxe devices.

Solo mining with a device like this remains a lottery: the chance of a block is small and the outcome is all or nothing. The comparison with renting hashrate is in Rent hashrate or buy a Bitaxe? The sums for 2026. You can find the two previous adjustments in Bitcoin difficulty adjustment 29 October: +6.5% expected and Bitcoin difficulty +5.92%: your home miner earns less.

What does this mean for you as a European investor?

If you already have a miner. First look at your electricity price per kWh and compare it with the break-even price in the table. The power figure the shop gives is an indication; measure it yourself with a plug-in power meter. You can follow the difficulty yourself on mempool.space.

If you are considering a miner. Work with the difficulty of the next period, not only the current one, and do not wait for a drop in the hope of a better moment: this year the difficulty has gone both up and down. With a yield of €1.19 to €7.30 per 30 days, before electricity costs, a purchase price of €87.87 to €445.55 (see the article on prices at three shops) is not quickly earned back.

Electricity prices differ per country. In the EU, consumer rates vary widely. Find your own rate on your energy bill and work with the price per kWh including tax and VAT.

Tax. What you have to declare on mined bitcoin differs per country and is outside the scope of this article. See crypto tax in Europe.

What is not certain yet

• The adjustment itself. −3.65% is a mempool.space estimate at the time of writing. It changes with every block as the block pace changes; there are still 1,352 blocks to go, almost ten days. The timing (around 08:29 UTC on 13 November) shifts with it. The actual adjustment may come in lower or higher, and could even change sign.
• The price. The tables assume 69,126 euros per bitcoin. A different price changes the euros, not the satoshi.
• The power draw of your device. The shops give different figures for the same chip. Measured consumption differs from the stated figure.
• Why there was less computing power. The difficulty shows that blocks came more slowly, not why. We have not established that cause in the sources.

This article is not investment advice. Crypto can lose a lot of value and you can lose your entire stake.

Frequently asked questions

When is the next bitcoin difficulty adjustment?

According to the mempool.space estimate, on 13 November 2026 at around 08:29 UTC, at block 975,744. That time shifts with the pace of the blocks.

Will bitcoin difficulty drop on 13 November?

At the time of writing (3 November 2026) the estimate is −3.65%, from 148.36 T to about 142.95 T. The outcome is only certain once block 975,744 has been found.

How often is bitcoin difficulty adjusted?

Every 2,016 blocks, roughly every two weeks. The last adjustment was on 29 October 2026 (block 973,728).

Does my Bitaxe earn more now that difficulty is dropping?

Yes. After an adjustment of −3.65%, at an unchanged price it earns 3.8% more bitcoin per day. In euros it also depends on the price.

Is mining bitcoin at home still worth it?

That depends on your electricity price. With a 15 W Bitaxe Gamma, the break-even after the adjustment is about €0.110 per kWh, at a difficulty of 142.95 T and a price of 69,126 euros. Above that you lose money on electricity alone.

Sources

Read on 3 November 2026.

• mempool.space: estimate of the next adjustment (as of 3 November 2026, 14:10 UTC)
• mempool.space: difficulty adjustments, last eight (29 October 2026, block 973,728)
• mempool.space: hashrate, last week (as of 3 November 2026)
• mempool.space: block reward and transaction fees, last 144 blocks (block 974,249 to 974,392 inclusive)
• mempool.space: bitcoin price (3 November 2026, 14:10 UTC)
• Cryptocode: Bitaxe price, three shops with hashrate and power as stated by the shops (14 October 2026)