Bitcoin difficulty adjustment 29 October: +6.5% expected

Bitcoin adjusts its difficulty at block 973,728, which mempool.space estimates will happen around 16:17 UTC on 29 October 2026. At the time of writing on 28 October that estimate stands at +6.50%: from 140.58 T to about 149.71 T (T stands for 10¹²). For anyone mining at home, that means the same miner earns 6.1% less bitcoin per day. Together with the rise of 16 October (+5.92%), that is 11.4% less per TH/s than in the period that began on 3 October.

Bitcoin difficulty on 29 October in short

• What is coming: at block 973,728 the network adjusts the difficulty. At the time of writing (28 October 2026, 06:05 UTC) the chain was at block 973,510, so 218 blocks to go.
• How much: the mempool.space estimate is +6.50%, from 140.58 T to about 149.71 T. On 20 October that estimate was still +6.92%; it moves with the pace of the blocks.
• Why: in the current period blocks arrived on average every 9 minutes and 24 seconds instead of every 10 minutes. So more computing was done than the difficulty expected.
• What it costs per miner: at an unchanged price, a miner earns 6.1% less bitcoin per day after the adjustment (1 ÷ 1.0650 = 0.939).
• What does not change: the block reward stays at 3.125 bitcoin per block, and the difficulty says nothing about the price.
• The catch: for a small home miner, the electricity price decides the outcome. Above roughly €0.110 per kWh you lose money on electricity alone with a Bitaxe Gamma, even before the purchase price.

What exactly is going on?

The difficulty determines how much work a miner has to do, on average, to find a valid block. The network adjusts it every 2,016 blocks, aiming for one block every ten minutes, so 14 days per period. If blocks come faster, the difficulty goes up; if they come slower, it goes down.

The current period began on 16 October 2026 at 12:37 UTC (block 971,712). At the time of writing, 1,798 of the 2,016 blocks have been found in 11 days and 17 hours. At a pace of exactly ten minutes, 1,689 blocks would have arrived in that time; so there are about 109 more. According to mempool.space's hashrate data, the computing power at the time of writing is 1.07 ZH/s (zettahash, 10²¹ hashes per second), against 1.05 ZH/s in our previous article on this subject on 20 October.

If the estimate holds, 149.71 T would be the highest level since 12 November 2025, when the difficulty reached 152.27 T. So far in 2026 the peak was 146.47 T, on 8 January. Compared with the period that began on 3 October (132.72 T), that is 12.8% more.

What does a home miner earn after 29 October?

Earnings follow a fixed formula: bitcoin per day = hashrate (in H/s) × 86,400 × block reward ÷ (difficulty × 2³²). With a block reward of 3.125 bitcoin, 1 TH/s yields 44.72 satoshi per day at the current difficulty of 140.58 T, and about 41.99 satoshi at 149.71 T. Transaction fees hardly matter: in the 144 blocks from 973,367 to 973,510 inclusive, 0.48% of what miners received came from transaction fees (2.17 of 452.17 bitcoin).

Below are the same three devices as in our article on Bitaxe price: what a home miner costs at three shops, with the hashrate and power draw as the shops state them. It is a worked example, not a promise: it assumes a price of 72,642 euros per bitcoin (mempool.space, 28 October 2026, 06:05 UTC), an unchanged price and 30 days per month.

What you are left with depends on your electricity price. The threshold above which you make a loss is the daily income divided by the kWh the device uses per day:

An example: after the adjustment the Gamma earns €1.19 per 30 days and uses 10.8 kWh. At €0.25 per kWh that electricity costs €2.70, so you are €1.51 down. Only below €0.110 per kWh does it pay, and that is still without counting the purchase price. The €0.25 is an assumption, not a measured price; fill in your own tariff. More on what a home miner earns can be found in Mining bitcoin at home in 2026: what a 12 TH/s miner really earns. For the devices on sale, see home miners and Bitaxe devices.

Solo mining with a device like this remains a lottery: the chance of a block is small and the outcome is all or nothing. The comparison with renting hashrate is in Rent hashrate or buy a Bitaxe? The sums for 2026. Our earlier piece on the adjustment of 16 October is Bitcoin difficulty +5.92%: your home miner earns less.

What does this mean for you as a European investor?

If you already have a miner. First look at your electricity price per kWh and compare it with the break-even price in the table. The power draw the shop states is an indication; measure it yourself with a plug-in power meter. You can follow the difficulty yourself on mempool.space.

If you are considering a miner. Calculate with the difficulty of the next period, not just the current one. With earnings of €1.19 to €7.32 per 30 days, before electricity costs, a purchase price of €87.87 to €445.55 (see the article on prices at three shops) is not quickly earned back.

Electricity prices differ by country. In the EU, consumer tariffs vary widely. Look up your own tariff on your energy bill and calculate with the price per kWh including taxes and VAT.

Tax. What you have to declare on mined bitcoin differs by country and is outside the scope of this article. See crypto tax in Europe.

What is not certain yet

• The adjustment itself. +6.50% is a mempool.space estimate at the time of writing. It changes with every block as the pace of the blocks changes; there are still 218 blocks to go. The timing (around 16:17 UTC on 29 October) moves with it. The actual adjustment may turn out lower or higher.
• The price. The tables assume 72,642 euros per bitcoin. A different price changes the euros, not the satoshi.
• The power draw of your device. The shops give different figures for the same chip. Measured consumption differs from the stated figure.
• Why more computing power arrived. The difficulty shows that blocks came faster, not why. We did not establish that cause in the sources.

This article is not investment advice. Crypto can lose a lot of value and you could lose your entire investment.

Frequently asked questions

When is the next bitcoin difficulty adjustment?

According to the mempool.space estimate, on 29 October 2026 around 16:17 UTC, at block 973,728. That time moves with the pace of the blocks.

How much will the bitcoin difficulty rise on 29 October?

At the time of writing (28 October 2026) the estimate is +6.50%, from 140.58 T to about 149.71 T. The outcome is only fixed once block 973,728 has been found.

How often is the bitcoin difficulty adjusted?

Every 2,016 blocks, roughly every two weeks. The last adjustment was on 16 October 2026 (block 971,712).

Will my Bitaxe earn less now that the difficulty is rising?

Yes. After an adjustment of +6.50%, at an unchanged price it earns 6.1% less bitcoin per day. In euros it also depends on the price.

Is mining bitcoin at home still worth it?

That depends on your electricity price. With a 15 W Bitaxe Gamma, the break-even after the adjustment is about €0.110 per kWh, at a difficulty of 149.71 T and a price of 72,642 euros. Above that you lose money on electricity alone.

Sources

Read on 28 October 2026.

• mempool.space: estimate of the next adjustment (as of 28 October 2026, 06:05 UTC)
• mempool.space: difficulty adjustments, last twelve (16 October 2026, block 971,712)
• mempool.space: hashrate (as of 28 October 2026)
• mempool.space: block reward and transaction fees, last 144 blocks (block 973,367 to 973,510 inclusive)
• mempool.space: bitcoin price (28 October 2026, 06:05 UTC)
• Cryptocode: Buying a Bitaxe, three shops with hashrate and power draw as stated by the shops (14 October 2026)