Ethereum closes three red quarters: is this the bottom?
Ethereum posted its first three consecutive losing quarters ever, from Q4 2025 through Q2 2026. Active addresses fell sharply, but the long-awaited Glamsterdam upgrade and historical patterns hint at a possible turning point later this year.
Ethereum closed out June having posted three consecutive red quarters for the first time in its history, with the price falling from roughly 4,953 dollars (roughly €4,338) in late 2025 to 1,751 dollars (roughly €1,533). Active addresses on the network dropped 46%, from 795,000 to around 420,000, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. Yet some analysts see the persistent weakness as the outline of a bottom, partly thanks to the long-awaited Glamsterdam upgrade expected later this year.
In short 📉 Q4 2025: -28% · Q1 2026: -29% · Q2 2026: -25% — the first three consecutive red quarters in ETH's history 💰 Price fell from around 4,953 dollars (roughly €4,338) to 1,751 dollars (roughly €1,533), now trading near 1,780 dollars (roughly €1,559) 👥 Active addresses down 46% (from 795,000 to roughly 420,000), per Glassnode 🔧 The Glamsterdam upgrade — up to 78% lower gas fees and 10x faster settlement — has been pushed to H2 2026 🎯 Price targets diverge sharply: Standard Chartered sees 4,000 dollars (roughly €3,503) by year-end 2026, Citi just 2,240 dollars (roughly €1,962) 📅 If the historical quarterly pattern repeats, the losing streak could break around October or November
Three quarters, one trend
For the first time since launch, Ethereum closed three consecutive quarters in the red: -28% in Q4 2025, -29% in Q1 2026, and -25% in Q2 2026. Spot ETH ETFs saw persistent net outflows through June, while the Fear & Greed Index repeatedly slipped into ‘extreme fear’ this year. Most notably, active addresses fell from 795,000 to around 420,000 — a 46% decline according to Glassnode's on-chain data, pointing to weakening organic network activity independent of price.
Why some analysts remain optimistic
Against the weak numbers stand developments that optimists point to as reasons for recovery. Glamsterdam — the next major protocol upgrade after Pectra and Fusaka — is designed to cut transaction costs by up to 78% and boost network speed tenfold. The upgrade has slipped into the second half of 2026, adding timing uncertainty, but remains the network's key technical catalyst. Meanwhile, some on-chain observers note large wallets accumulating ETH during the dip, which could signal longer-term institutional confidence.
Divided price targets
Analysts are far from aligned on what comes next. Standard Chartered targets 4,000 dollars (roughly €3,503) by the end of 2026, while Citi takes a considerably more cautious view at 2,240 dollars (roughly €1,962). The average of market forecasts compiled by Changelly sits around 1,993 dollars (roughly €1,745) for 2026 — close to the current price. That spread illustrates just how uncertain Ethereum's near-term outlook remains.
What this could mean
Historically, Ethereum's longer losing streaks have tended to resolve within two to three quarters. If that pattern repeats, the current red streak could break around October or November — though that's no guarantee, since each cycle carries its own mix of regulation, macroeconomic conditions, and technological progress. Investors tracking the situation would do well to watch both Glamsterdam's progress and ETF flows, since either could signal a turn before the price does.
Ethereum's persistent weakness doesn't stand in isolation: earlier this month we compared buying Bitcoin or Ethereum in 2026, and June's Ethereum ETF outflows show a similar picture of hesitant institutional demand. Meanwhile, the Glamsterdam upgrade remains the key technical development to watch.
Three red quarters mark a historic low for Ethereum, but not an automatic turning point. The combination of declining network activity and a delayed upgrade calls for patience, while diverging price targets show that even professional analysts are split on the near-term direction.
Sources: Glassnode, Standard Chartered, Citi. Last checked: 7 July 2026.