Crypto bounces after Trump says the Iran war is over
Bitcoin opened 3.4% higher at €55,900 on Friday after Trump declared the war with Iran is over. Yet the Fear & Greed Index sits at 12: deep panic.
The crypto market is in the green on Friday. Bitcoin opened at €55,900 — a gain of 3.4% versus Thursday — and ether rose 3.2% to around €1,470. Total market capitalization climbed back above €1.98 trillion, a recovery of 1.7% in 24 hours. The trigger: President Trump declared on Thursday that the war with Iran is over, which lifted not only crypto but also stocks and precious metals while pushing oil prices down.
Buying the dip
The recovery follows a turbulent weekend in which bitcoin briefly dipped to €52,000. Investors seized that dip to buy, and altcoins like ether and XRP bounced along too. DeFi tokens recovered the most, up more than 5% — a sign that some risk appetite is creeping back into the market.
Why the panic has not gone away
Anyone looking only at prices misses the undercurrent. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 12 — deep in the ‘extreme fear’ zone. There are three reasons for this.
First, the ceasefire is fragile: Iran has contradicted Trump's version, so the conflict could flare up again at any moment. Second, capital keeps flowing out of the spot ETFs: US bitcoin ETFs lost more than €3.5 billion in four weeks. And third, the market is keeping a wary eye on the upcoming SpaceX IPO, which is expected to draw a fair amount of liquidity out of risky assets.
What does this mean for you?
A recovery on geopolitical news is different from a trend reversal. As long as the ETF outflow persists, the structural buying pressure that carried the market earlier is missing. For the long-term investor, the relevant question is mainly whether current levels fit their own strategy — not whether the market happens to be green or red today.
Source: Yahoo Finance, Invezz, CoinGabbar
Note: Investing in cryptocurrencies carries significant risks. You can lose your stake.