Bitcoin on edge: 9.1 billion euros in options expire June 26

The bitcoin market is heading toward an exciting end of the month. On 26 June, around €9.1 billion in bitcoin options expires — the largest expiry round of 2026. Such moments can cause extra volatility, because large parties hedge or roll over their positions in the days beforehand.

What is the 'max pain'?

A term that always comes up around large expiries is the max pain price. That is the price level at which the largest portion of option contracts expires worthless — in other words: the price that causes most option buyers the most 'pain' and suits writers best. For this round, that max pain is around €64,000. The theory says the price can be pulled toward that level as expiry approaches, although it is no iron law.

The price stays sideways for now

Bitcoin started June around €63,000, but then fell back sharply; in mid-June the price hovers around €55,800, roughly in a band between support around €54,000 and resistance around €58,000. Earlier in the month, the price got a boost when better-than-expected US inflation figures improved the mood and bitcoin bounced toward €58,000. Yet analysts remain cautious due to weak on-chain data, low trading volumes and the uncertainty around geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Bottom or new decline?

Opinions are divided. Some analysts point to on-chain signals that may indicate bottom formation between €52,000 and €61,000. Others warn precisely that continued institutional outflows can put the price under further pressure. What almost everyone shares: the large option expiry and the geopolitics make the last week of June a potentially volatile period.

For the average investor, the lesson is mainly: do not get rattled by a single isolated trading day. Large expiries regularly cause short-lived swings that ebb away again within a few days.

Source: Crypto-insiders, BeInCrypto, Crypto Koers Euro