XRP and the CLARITY Act: a key Senate vote nears

While Europe has just wrapped up the first phase of its MiCA crypto law, the United States is still wrestling with its own version: the CLARITY Act. That bill is meant to finally clarify which US regulator — the securities watchdog SEC or the commodities watchdog CFTC — is responsible for which crypto assets. For XRP, whose legal status has been debated for years, there's a lot riding on the outcome.

In short

🏛️ The US CLARITY Act (a market-structure bill for crypto) is due before the Senate this month · 🗣️ Senator Cynthia Lummis expects a final, compromise text around 4 July, with a vote later in July · 📉 the odds of passage on prediction market Polymarket dropped from 73% earlier this year to just 42% now · 🇺🇸 vs 🇪🇺 in Europe, a comparable framework — MiCA — has been fully in force since 1 July · 🪙 XRP remains sensitive to every headline about the bill.

---

What exactly is the CLARITY Act?

The CLARITY Act (formally the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) is a US legislative proposal meant to establish which federal regulator has authority over which type of crypto asset. Right now, there's no clear-cut answer to that question in the US — the SEC and CFTC sometimes claim overlapping jurisdiction, creating legal uncertainty for American crypto firms and investors.

For XRP, this isn't an abstract debate: the token spent years locked in a drawn-out legal fight with the SEC over whether it should be classified as a security. Clear legislation should prevent that kind of dispute from recurring in the future.

Where does the bill stand now?

Senator Cynthia Lummis — one of the most crypto-friendly voices in the US Senate — said she expects a final, negotiated text around 4 July, followed by a floor vote in the Senate later this month. That would mark a significant step after months of negotiations between Democrats and Republicans over the bill's exact provisions.

But the odds aren't a given

Despite Lummis's optimistic tone, the market itself has grown more cautious. On prediction market Polymarket — where users stake money on the outcome of events — the estimated probability that the CLARITY Act passes this year dropped from 73% earlier in 2026 to just 42% now. That's a significant loss of confidence, and a sign the legislative process may be proving harder than initially hoped.

What does this mean for XRP?

XRP has long been sensitive to any headline about US crypto legislation, and this time is no different. Clear regulation would, in theory, benefit XRP and similar tokens, since it gives institutional players more certainty about working with them. But as long as the outcome remains uncertain, the price stays sensitive to every signal — positive or negative — coming out of Washington.

The contrast with Europe

Anyone following CryptoCode's coverage will notice an interesting contrast: Europe already has a fully functioning licensing framework with MiCA, while the United States is still deep in negotiations over its own version. That doesn't mean the European system is perfect — as we reported earlier, some member states still hadn't issued a single licence — but on regulatory clarity, Europe is currently ahead.

What does this mean for you as a European investor?

For investors in the Netherlands, Belgium and France, US legislation doesn't directly change your own legal position — that's already governed by MiCA. Still, it's worth keeping an eye on this story:

• 📡 US regulation influences sentiment globally, including in European markets.
• 🏦 Greater US clarity could attract institutional capital, which can ripple through the broader market.
• 🧭 Don't fixate on short-term price reactions to individual headlines.

Sources: Polymarket, Cynthia Lummis (US Senate). Last checked: 6 July 2026.