Bitcoin defends 65,000 dollars as Ethereum leads the way into FOMC week

Bitcoin is closing out the weekend at roughly 65,300 dollars (approximately €57,100), about 1.4 per cent higher than 24 hours earlier. Ethereum is doing considerably better with a gain of more than four per cent. The real move, though, is still ahead: the US central bank meets on Wednesday, and the rest of the week is packed with figures that determine liquidity in risk markets.

Where the market stands on 27 July

Bitcoin is trading around 65,300 dollars (approximately €57,100) on Sunday morning. That is a gain of about 1.4 per cent against Saturday, but on a weekly basis the picture is flat: the price spent the entire week in a band between 64,000 and 66,800 dollars (approximately €56,000 and €58,450). Bitcoin's market capitalisation stands at roughly 1.31 trillion dollars (approximately €1.15 trillion), giving it dominance of around 58 per cent of the whole crypto market.

That dominance tells only part of the story. Bitcoin is still trading around 48 per cent below its record of approximately 126,000 dollars (approximately €110,250) set in October 2025. The total crypto market is worth some 2.4 trillion dollars (approximately €2.1 trillion), on trading volume of about 50 billion dollars (approximately €43.75 billion) over 24 hours. That volume is on the thin side, which fits a Sunday in summer.

Technically, support sits between 63,000 and 64,000 dollars (approximately €55,125 and €56,000). The price has found a floor there several times this month. Resistance is immediately above the current level, around 65,000 dollars (approximately €56,875); on the conventional technical reading, a convincing break above it opens the way to 70,000 or 72,000 dollars (approximately €61,250 to €63,000).

Ethereum leads the way

Ethereum is the stronger of the two this week. The price is around 1,955 dollars (approximately €1,710), a gain of about four per cent in 24 hours and more than four per cent across the week. That puts its market capitalisation at some 236 billion dollars (approximately €207 billion).

More important than the percentage is which level has been taken. The zone between 1,880 and 1,910 dollars (approximately €1,645 and €1,671) capped Ethereum for weeks. It has now been broken and, on any pullback, acts as first support alongside the area around 1,850 dollars (approximately €1,619). Above it waits the psychological level of 2,000 dollars (approximately €1,750), untouched since the spring.

There is also plenty of dry powder standing ready. The combined market capitalisation of stablecoins is roughly 300 billion dollars (approximately €262.5 billion). That is capital already inside the crypto system, able to move into bitcoin or ethereum at any moment without a fresh bank transfer.

The Fed meets on Wednesday

The week's reference point falls on Wednesday 29 July. The Federal Open Market Committee's rate decision comes at 14:00 New York time, which is 20:00 in Western Europe. The market expects policy to be left unchanged almost unanimously, with the target range at 3.50 to 3.75 per cent.

Because the outcome is all but settled, the news sits in chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at roughly 14:30 New York time (20:30 in Western Europe). This is also not a projection meeting: there will be no dot plot setting out individual governors' rate expectations. The only genuinely new information, then, is the tone Warsh takes on inflation and growth.

For European investors the European side is already settled. The ECB left all three of its rates untouched on 23 July, with the deposit rate at 2.25 per cent. The rate gap between the euro area and the United States therefore stays wide, and that is precisely why the dollar rate also reaches the euro-based crypto investor.

Big Tech and rates set the liquidity

The rest of the week is at least as busy. Tuesday 28 July brings the Conference Board's consumer confidence reading, with consensus around 92 points. Thursday 30 July delivers the advance estimate of US second-quarter GDP, where economists expect about 2.5 per cent, plus weekly jobless claims. Friday 31 July closes with core PCE inflation and the Employment Cost Index, on the same day as month-end options expiry.

On top of that, Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon all report this week. For crypto that is no side issue: the correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq has stayed high in recent months, and a disappointment at Big Tech feeds through via broad risk appetite. From the sector itself, Robinhood reports on 29 July and Coinbase and Strategy on 30 July. Strategy now holds roughly 843,775 bitcoin, worth in the region of 54 billion dollars (approximately €47.25 billion).

Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, expects bitcoin to stay range-bound around 65,000 dollars for now. He points to the oil price, which has retreated about five per cent from last week's high as tensions between the United States and Iran ease, and to the US ten-year Treasury yield creeping towards 4.7 per cent. As long as those two balance each other out, he sees little reason for a breakout.

ETF flows are thin but positive

US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded an inflow of 33.79 million dollars (approximately €29.6 million). That capped a run of positive days, but the sum is modest and in the sessions that followed the picture turned back to outflows. There is no structural wave of inflows here.

Sentiment matches. The Fear and Greed Index sits in the high twenties to low thirties, which amounts to caution without panic. On prediction markets, the odds of the CLARITY Act clearing the US Senate this year are put at about 35 per cent; the summer recess there begins around 7 August, so time is short.

At protocol level two things are scheduled. Zcash carries out its Ironwood upgrade on 28 July, at block 3,428,143 around the middle of the day in UTC. A day later, on 29 July, Stacks follows with the PoX-5 hard fork. Both are planned upgrades, but volatility in the coin concerned is typically elevated around such moments.

What it means for you

This is a week for waiting rather than forcing. The rate decision itself is priced in; the reaction depends on how Warsh speaks, and that is by definition unpredictable. Anyone adjusting positions is wiser to do so after Wednesday evening than before it.

Keep an eye on the exchange rate as well. Every figure above is a dollar figure, and European investors settle in euros. With a euro-dollar rate that will move with the Fed decision this week, a flat bitcoin price in dollars can still produce a gain or a loss in euros. So measure your return in the currency you do your shopping in.

Sources: CoinEx, Federal Reserve, ECB, CoinDesk, crypto.news. Last checked: 27 July 2026.