Bitcoin +43% in Q3: what next in October?
Bitcoin ended the third quarter up around 43%. What October has done since 2013, in our own table, and why Citi has raised its price target.
Bitcoin ended the third quarter of 2026 up roughly 43%, its best third quarter since 2017. October has been positive in 10 of the 13 years since 2013, with a median gain of around +15%. But October 2025 closed in the red, and 13 years is a small sample: the pattern is no promise.
How strong was the third quarter?
Bitcoin climbed from $58,524 on 30 June to $83,556 on 30 September (closing prices in UTC). That is +42.8% by our calculation. Other data sources put it between 42.7% (CoinGlass, via BeInCrypto) and 43.9% (CryptoBriefing); the difference comes down to the time and the exchange at which the closing price is taken.
By month:
- July: +7.4%
- August: +25.0%
- September: +6.4%
The last time July, August and September all closed green was 2012. That is why BeInCrypto calls it a pattern that had held for 13 years. In every year in between, a green August was followed by a red September.
Two caveats. First, in 2012 exactly the same run was followed by an October of −9.7%. Second, the quarter started from a low base: at the end of June bitcoin posted its lowest monthly close since January 2024 (Alpha Vantage: $58,524 against $42,611 at the end of January 2024), and even after the rally the price is still about a third below the peak of almost $126,000 set in October 2025.
What did bitcoin do in October in previous years?
Our own calculation, based on monthly closing prices in dollars:
Source: BTC/USD monthly closing prices from Alpha Vantage, checked against Binance (2018–2026) and Bitstamp (2013–2016). The gap between the series is a few percentage points at most in any year and never changes the sign.
What the table shows:
- October was positive 10 times out of 13. The red years are 2014, 2018 and 2025.
- The median is around +15% (CoinGlass puts it at 14.71%). The average is higher, at +19.5%, because 2013, 2017 and 2021 pull it up.
- The worst October was 2014, at −12.5%.
- A strong third quarter predicts little. In 2025 Q3 was positive and October negative; in 2015, 2019 and 2023 Q3 was negative and October comfortably positive.
What happened in October 2025?
October 2025 was the first red October since 2018. By our calculation bitcoin lost 4.0%; Cryptorank reports −3.7%, and CoinDesk Data, using a different methodology, arrived at −8.5%. On 10 October the price slid from about $120,000 to around $105,000 after US President Trump threatened China with new tariffs. At the same time, positions worth tens of billions of dollars were automatically closed on derivatives exchanges. It shows how little a seasonal pattern counts for once big news breaks.
What does Citigroup expect?
On 1 October 2026 Citigroup raised its 12-month price target for bitcoin to $113,000, from $82,000. For ether the target went to $3,028, from $2,240. Converted at the ECB reference rate of 1 October 2026 (€1 = $1.1298):
On 1 October bitcoin was trading at around $84,000 (c. €74,400). The new target sits about 34% above that; for ether the gap is about 12%.
Citi gives three reasons, according to CoinDesk:
- ETF money is coming back. US spot bitcoin ETFs were sitting on $5.8 billion of net outflows for the year in mid-July and on about $800 million of net inflows by the end of September. Citi expects $5 billion (c. €4.4 billion) of inflows into crypto products over the next twelve months.
- Regulation. After the Senate rejected the Clarity Act, new SEC rules took the edge off the negative mood. Also read how the SEC opened the door to onchain trading.
- Macro. The US Treasury’s government bond buyback programme gave the market support.
The catch with a price target like this: the old target of $82,000 was reached within a few months and had to be revised. Bank targets often follow the price more than they predict it.
What does this mean for you?
Not much you can plan around. Two things are useful, though:
- The current market picture tells you more than a calendar month. The market regime indicator shows whether trend, volatility and ETF flows are currently favourable or unfavourable.
- If you want to buy, the difference lies mainly in fees and spread. Compare fees by platform or read how to buy bitcoin in 5 steps.
We wrote earlier that August is historically weak; August 2026 then came in at +25%. That, too, shows how limited seasonal patterns are.
Who is this not for?
If you are putting in money you will need within a few months, or cannot stomach a 12% drop in a single month, do not count on ‘Uptober’. The worst October in the table cost 12.5%, and outside October, monthly falls of 20% or more have happened more often, such as June 2022 (−37.8%).
This article is not investment advice. Crypto is volatile; you can lose your entire stake.
Frequently asked questions
Is October always a good month for bitcoin?
No. Since 2013 October has been positive 10 times out of 13. In 2014 (−12.5%), 2018 (−4.8%) and 2025 (−4.0%) the month closed with a loss.
What does Uptober mean?
A blend of ‘up’ and ‘October’: the nickname traders use for bitcoin’s tendency to rise in October. It describes the past; it is not a rule.
How much did bitcoin rise in the third quarter of 2026?
About 43%: from $58,524 to $83,556 on closing prices. Depending on the data source, it ranges from 42.7% to 43.9%. It was the best third quarter since 2017 (+73.6%).
What is Citigroup’s price target for bitcoin?
$113,000 over twelve months (c. €100,000), raised from $82,000 on 1 October 2026. For ether the target is $3,028.
Should I buy bitcoin now because October usually goes up?
We cannot make that call for you; this is not advice. A pattern over 13 years is a small sample, and October 2025 showed that a single news story can break the pattern. Only buy with money you can afford to lose.
Sources: CryptoBriefing, BeInCrypto via Yahoo Finance, Cointelegraph, CoinDesk on Citigroup, Yahoo Finance, 1 October 2026, CoinDesk on October 2025, Cryptorank, monthly prices from Alpha Vantage, Binance and Bitstamp, exchange rate from the ECB via Frankfurter.
Last checked: 2 October 2026