Bitcoin edges back to 63,800 dollars on Fed decision day

Where the market stands on 29 July

The total crypto market is worth 2.28 trillion dollars, roughly €2.00 trillion, up 0.4 per cent over twenty-four hours. Volume came in at 61.84 billion dollars, roughly €54.11 billion. That is not a number to be alarmed by, but it is thin: the market is holding its breath until tonight.

Bitcoin trades at 63,818.12 dollars, roughly €55,841, a gain of 1.04 per cent. Ethereum is doing better at 1,912.56 dollars, roughly €1,673, up 2.38 per cent. XRP sits at 1.07 dollars, roughly €0.94, up 1.9 per cent. Bitcoin dominance stands at 56.3 per cent and ethereum at 10.2 per cent — a ratio that has barely shifted in weeks.

Tonight at seven: the Fed decision

At 7pm UK time the Federal Open Market Committee announces its rate decision, followed half an hour later by chair Kevin Warsh's press conference. The market assumes almost unanimously that rates stay unchanged at 3.50 to 3.75 per cent.

One detail matters: this is a non-projection meeting, so there is no dot plot. That pushes all attention onto the wording of the statement and onto whatever Warsh lets slip about balance sheet runoff. For crypto investors that last point is often more relevant than the rate itself, because the pace at which the Fed drains liquidity determines how much risk capital is left in the market.

The fear index is still stuck at 29

The Fear & Greed Index reads 29, exactly where it sat yesterday. That is squarely in ‘fear’ territory, and it is striking how stubborn that reading is for a market that has now crept higher two days running.

The combination says something. An index that refuses to follow a rising price suggests the recovery is being carried by cautious buying rather than enthusiasm. Historically that is not a bad sign — bottoms rarely form in high spirits — but it also means one disappointing sentence in the Fed statement is enough to wipe out this week's gains.

Winners and losers of the day

At the top, Orochi Network (ON) jumped 74.49 per cent, followed by Audiera (BEAT) at 30.20 per cent and Zilliqa (ZIL) at 26.7 per cent. Lighter (LIT) added 8.91 per cent and Jupiter (JUP) 6.68 per cent. The first three are small names with thin order books; moves like these say more about liquidity than about underlying developments.

At the bottom, Pyth Network (PYTH) lost 7.09 per cent, MemeCore (M) 5.25 per cent and LayerZero (ZRO) 4.97 per cent. No drama there either: these are moves consistent with a market waiting sideways for news, in which capital rotates from one name to the next without much arriving on balance.

Stablecoins and DeFi: the quiet middle

The total stablecoin market sits at 302.5 billion dollars, roughly €264.7 billion, down 0.1 per cent. That is effectively flat, and that is news in itself: if investors were fleeing en masse, that figure would be climbing. So nobody is panic-selling into the sidelines.

DeFi is worth 62.6 billion dollars, roughly €54.8 billion, up 0.8 per cent. That fits the broader picture of a market willing to take marginally more risk than yesterday, but within narrow bounds. As long as the stablecoin float is not shrinking, dry powder remains parked on the sidelines.

What this means for you

If you plan to place an order today, waiting for the evening to pass is the sensible move. Around the announcement and the thirty minutes that follow, the order book is thinner than usual and price swings exceed anything the news warrants. If you do trade, limit orders beat market orders.

For the longer term, little changes in substance. Bitcoin has been range-bound for weeks, the fear index confirms there is no euphoria, and the stablecoin float shows money is not heading for the exit. More interesting than the rate itself is what Warsh says about the balance sheet: keep the runoff pace and the brake stays on for now. Signal a slowdown and that would be the first genuine sign of a looser environment since the spring.

Sources: CoinGabbar, CoinDesk, Federal Reserve, ECB. Last checked: 29 July 2026.