All ten largest coins in a downward trend, fear index at 27
Our own trend gauge puts all ten of the coins we track in a downward trend this morning. Bitcoin is 13.9 percent lower than a week ago, polkadot 20.2 percent. The fear and greed index stands at 27.
The state of play this morning
On 12 August the trend gauge we update every hour puts all ten of the coins we track in a downward trend. Not one is upward, not one sideways. That is a rare degree of unanimity: usually a few run against the current.
The change over seven days, in euro:
Bitcoin was quoted at €55,235 this morning. The fear and greed index from alternative.me stands at 27, which is classified as fear; three days ago it was still 29.
The picture over twenty-four hours is different
Where the week is uniformly red, the past day is divided. Chainlink added 3.7 percent, dogecoin 2.1 percent and XRP 1.3 percent, while polkadot lost 2.2 percent and avalanche 3.9 percent.
That difference between the day and the week is exactly why we look at the trend and not at the daily price. One green day does not turn a downward trend around, and one red day does not turn a rise into a fall.
How we measure this
The gauge looks at the logarithmic returns of the past seven days, weights recent moves more heavily through an exponential average, and tests that outcome against the volatility of that same series instead of against a fixed percentage. That keeps a quiet coin from sitting on sideways permanently, and stops a volatile coin from jumping back and forth every day.
The thresholds are deliberately not symmetrical: the gauge flips to downward sooner than to upward. The full calculation method is set out on the Market regime page.
What this is not
This is a measurement of what has happened, not a prediction of what is going to happen. A downward trend says nothing about the chance that it continues tomorrow, and the fear index is a sentiment gauge, not a signal.
What it does do is give context to a decision you were already about to take. Anyone opening an account now to pick up a welcome bonus is doing so in a market that has gone one way for a week — and bonuses with a mandatory trading volume cost more in a week like that than they bring in.
Investing in crypto-assets carries considerable risks. You can lose your entire stake.