Bitcoin rebounds to 62,931 dollars, but August is historically its weakest month

Bitcoin closed July up 8.9 per cent and trades on 1 August at around 62,930.96 dollars (roughly €55,064), 2.3 per cent higher than a day earlier. That was its best month in a year. The awkward part is the month that starts now.

Where the market stands on 1 August

Bitcoin is quoted at 62,930.96 dollars (roughly €55,064) and is up 2.3 per cent over 24 hours. Ethereum trades at 1,864.92 dollars (roughly €1,632), up 2.2 per cent. The combined market value of all crypto-assets comes to 2.258 trillion dollars (roughly €1.976 trillion), 1.3 per cent higher, on daily trading volume of 62.012 billion dollars (roughly €54.26 billion).

Bitcoin dominance sits at 56.0 per cent, ethereum dominance at 9.97 per cent. That is the picture of a market steadying after a weak final week of July, not one going anywhere in particular. Bitcoin briefly slipped below 63,000 dollars (roughly €55,125) on 31 July before the rebound began.

July was strong, August rarely is

Up 8.9 per cent over July reads well, and it is: the strongest month in twelve. Yet that gain sits almost exactly on top of the seasonal pattern. The median July since 2013 has delivered 8.61 per cent. Bitcoin, in other words, did roughly what bitcoin usually does in July.

Which is precisely why the next figure matters. The median August since 2013 comes in at minus 7.51 per cent, making August historically the weakest month of the year for bitcoin. Seasonal patterns are not forecasts, and thirteen observations is thin statistically, but it explains why professional traders spend these weeks trimming risk rather than adding to it.

Where the options market has parked its money

On Deribit, where most institutional bitcoin options change hands, the heaviest block of open interest sits on the 60,000-dollar put (roughly €52,500): 1.17 billion dollars of notional (roughly €1.02 billion). That is protection against a fall, not a bet on a rise.

The upside looks different in character. The 70,000-dollar call (roughly €61,250) still carries 943 million dollars (roughly €825 million) of open interest, down from 2.5 billion dollars (roughly €2.19 billion). The 72,000-dollar call (roughly €63,000) stands at 888 million dollars (roughly €777 million), also down from 2.5 billion dollars. Friday's 08:00 UTC expiry settled around 10 billion dollars (roughly €8.75 billion) of bitcoin and ethereum options.

The reading is straightforward: upside positions have been unwound wholesale, downside protection has stayed put. That is not panic, but it is not positioning for a breakout either.

The fear index reads 27

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 27, which places it in fear territory. A week earlier it was around 25. So the market is marginally less fearful than at the end of July, and still a long way from neutral.

For clarity: a low reading does not automatically mean the bottom is in. What it does mean is that sentiment was already depressed before the historically weakest month began. There is less euphoria priced in to wring out than there was a year ago.

What else moved under the bonnet

At the edges of the market there was plenty of movement. World Mobile Token rose 98.6 per cent to 0.04699 dollars (roughly €0.0411), Koma Inu 97.5 per cent to 0.02712 dollars (roughly €0.0237) and Gods Unchained 63.3 per cent to 0.03137 dollars (roughly €0.0274). These are small names with thin order books; percentages of that size say more about liquidity than about demand.

Away from the exchanges, Coinbase shares fell about 10 per cent on 31 July after quarterly results. And in Washington the momentum behind new crypto legislation visibly cooled, having been priced in during the spring. Neither drives the price directly, but together they remove part of the story that carried July's rally.

What this means for you

In practice: August is the month to check your own assumptions rather than raise your exposure. If you buy on a fixed schedule, nothing changes, which is rather the point of a schedule. If you were planning to add because July felt good, it helps to know that July was statistically ordinary and August will probably be too.

Also watch where your risk actually sits. The options market has its protection stacked around 60,000 dollars (roughly €52,500), not above it. That is the level where behaviour clusters on the way down: hedges triggering, liquidations following. Anyone running leverage would do better to treat 60,000 dollars as a planning level rather than a coincidence.

Sources: CoinGecko, Deribit, CoinDesk, Motley Fool, Bloomberg, Crypto Fear and Greed Index. Last checked: 1 August 2026.